BlackJack Strategy – The Assumption of 10 Strategy

It is possible to start playing smart BlackJack by adopting a simple strategy that requires little more than familiarisation with a few guidelines. The simple BlackJack strategy outlined below takes into account the fact that there are more cards valued at 10 in the game than any other value and assumes that the next card coming is going to be worth 10. BlackJack at HoldemPoker.com uses two standard 52 card decks so there are 32 individual cards valued at 10 available in every hand of BlackJack, this is compared to 8 individual cards of every other possible value.

Given this fact about the decks a simple strategy assumes that the dealers’ second face-down card will eventually turn out to be valued at 10. The assumption of 10 is made, even though it is often bound to be wrong, because it is more likely that the second card will be valued at 10 than any other specific value. Adding the assumed value of the dealers’ second face down card of 10 to the value of the dealers’ first face up card you can classify all the assumed hands held by the dealer into one of two types. The two types are hands that are good for the dealer and hands that the dealer will probably bust.

If the dealer’s face up card is a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 assuming that the dealer’s next card will be worth 10 their hand is valued at 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16. Now if you remember that the dealer has to ‘Hit’ at anything less than 17 you can see that these are hands that given our assumptions the dealer is probably going to bust. There are more cards that will send him over 21 in each case than will not. In this case the simple strategy would recommend you to play tight and avoid risks, play conservatively and avoid busting at all costs as the dealer is most likely to bust themselves.

If the dealer’s face up card is a 7, 8, 9, 10 or an ace assuming that the dealer’s next card will be worth 10 their hand is valued at 17, 18, 19 or 20. Now the dealer has to stand on 17 or higher and using our assumption the dealer probably has a good hand. In this case the simple strategy would recommend you to play loose and take risks to try and improve your hand so that it will beat the dealer’s assumed hand.

With these observations the simple strategy can be fleshed out a little by factoring in your possible hands and a few guidelines formulated as to when you should Hit or Stand.
Firstly if you have 11 or less don’t even think about your options ‘Hit’. There is no way that you can bust and the ‘Hit’ card can only improve your hand.

Secondly if have anything from 12 to 16 and the dealer has a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 showing, generally you should ‘Stand’ as the dealer is likely to bust themselves. However if the dealer has a 2 or a 3 showing and you only have 12, given the assumption of 10 it makes it a little more advisable to ‘Hit’ anyway, this is because there are still are a few more combinations of low cards that could improve the hand rather than bust it.

Thirdly if you have anything from 12 to 16 and the dealer has 7, 8, 9, 10 or 11 showing, generally you should ‘Hit’. This is because the dealer has a much better chance of winning unless you improve your hand. Unfortunately you also have a bigger chance of busting. However if you have a ace valued at 11, you can be flexible and maybe take a bigger risk on extra cards because the ace valued at 11 can always be re-valued to be worth 1. This would then lead you to re-evaluate your hand.

Finally if your hand is 17 or higher and the dealer is showing 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 the simple strategy would recommend that you ‘Stand’. This is because you have a high risk of busting if you take anymore cards.

That’s it for the simple strategy. There are lots of other strategies out there that build on the simple ‘Assumption of 10 Strategy’ outlined above by factoring in other considerations. The simple strategy only provides guidelines and hints to help you find your own way to play, following the simple strategy alone will not guarantee success at BlackJack.

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